Belgian Trade After Brexit

Abstract

This study examines the impact of Brexit on Belgian trade with the United Kingdom. No evidence was found that uncertainty effects led to a significant decline in Belgian exports after the Brexit vote in 2016. However, the UK’s departure from the EU’s Single Market in 2021 caused a major decline in Belgium’s trade with the UK by about 25 per cent. In addition, I find that imports from the UK significantly dropped below the baseline after the election of Boris Johnson. The study also explores heterogeneous adjustments on the margins of trade and on different products and industries.