Population Growth: Implications for Commuting

Abstract

Planners and public policy decision-makers face many challenges in transport services provision. This research examines the impact of spatially concentrated versus dispersed residential development on transport in terms of congestion, expenditure, and emissions. The empirical modelling uses Galway city and its surrounding hinterland as a case study and provides scenario outcomes based on several planning development assumptions. Across the scenarios examined there is relatively little difference in total CO₂ emissions from public and private transport combined, even across scenarios with quite different assumptions on the location of new housing developments. Consequently, emissions outcomes may not be a singular critical motivating factor behind such planning scenarios, though other factors such as congestion are also relevant. A critical assumption underpinning the analysis is that mode shares across spatial zones remain like those in 2016. Consequently, the analysis suggests that in addition to planning decisions impacting on the location of new residential development, to minimise the impact of commuting emissions associated with envisaged population growth by the year 2040 will necessitate substantial behavioural change in terms of commuting patterns.