Measuring the Sensitivity of the Northern Ireland Protocol on the All-Ireland Agri-Food Supply Chain

Abstract

The agri-food sectors in Northern Ireland (NI) and Ireland (IRL) have become more integrated with more investments from IRL in the north and advances in all Ireland cooperation on animal health and welfare, and disease control. However, as both jurisdictions are considered structurally similar and both have a large dairy and beef sector, they are competing in the Great Britain (GB) market for agrifood products. When considering the island of Ireland agri-food sectors in the context of Brexit and the NI Protocol, there will be clear winners and losers under different Brexit and NI protocol scenarios. What constitutes a relatively “good” economic outcome for NI farmers may come at the expense of IRL farmers, while relatively “good” economic outcomes for IRL farmers may amplify negative outcomes for NI farmers. This paper analyses the impacts of the NI Protocol in terms of what it means for the agri-food sectors in IRL, NI, but also for the island of Ireland (ISL) as a whole.